Our Manifesto

We founded Mosaic as optimists who see technology as a force for good, and believe that the startup ecosystem will positively impact society.

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Our investment in Manas AI

We’re proud to back Manas AI to build the future of drug discovery

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AI Agents Don’t Buy Seats—Why Your Pricing Should Follow Suit

Why you need to rethink your pricing for the agentic age

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Transforming customer service with AI agents: Parloa raises $120M Series C at $1B valuation

We're excited to announce that Parloa has raised a $120M Series C, at a $1B valuation.

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What kind of disruption?

Software ate the world. Uber and Airbnb didn’t sell software - they disrupted and redefined markets. But what kind of disruption are we talking about ?

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Apple innovation and execution

It matters that Apple’s new Siri will be late, and it matters more that Apple didn’t realise. Is it more than that?

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Are better models better?

Every week there’s a better AI model that gives better answers. But a lot of questions don’t have better answers, only ‘right’ answers, and these models can’t do that. So what does ‘better’ mean, how do we manage these things, and should we change what we expect from computers?

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The Deep Research problem

OpenAI’s Deep Research is built for me, and I can’t use it. It’s another amazing demo, until it breaks. But it breaks in really interesting ways.

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Introducing Mosaic's new Partner, Chandar Lal

We’re excited to announce that we have promoted Chandar Lal to join our partnership.

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AI eats the world

Every year, I produce a big presentation exploring macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. For 2025, "AI eats the world"

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Competing in search

Will Apple build a search engine? Will ChatGPT change search? Does it matter?

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The AI summer

Hundreds of millions of people have tried ChatGPT, but most of them haven’t been back. Every big company has done a pilot, but far fewer are in deployment. Some of this is just a matter of time. But LLMs might also be a trap: they look like products and they look magic, but they aren’t. Maybe we have to go through the slow, boring hunt for product-market fit after all.

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The VR winter continues

Meta has spent at least $50bn on VR and AR so far, but we’re still in the VR winter: the devices aren’t good enough or cheap enough and the user base is flat. But no matter how good the devices get, how many people will care?

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Why we invested in Coram.ai

Backing the next generation of AI-powered video security

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Apple intelligence and AI maximalism

Apple has showed a bunch of cool ideas for generative AI, but much more, it is pointing to most of the big questions and proposing a different answer - that LLMs are commodity infrastructure, not platforms or products.

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Building AI products

How do we build mass-market products that change the world around a technology that gets things ‘wrong’? What does wrong mean, and how is that useful?

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Ways to think about AGI

How do we think about a fundamentally unknown and unknowable risk, when the experts agree only that they have no idea?

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AI and problems of scale

Generative AI means things that were always possible at a small scale now become practical to automate at a massive scale. Sometimes a change in scale is a change in principle.

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Looking for AI use cases

We’ve had ChatGPT for 18 months, but what’s it for? What are the use cases? Why isn’t it useful for everyone, right now?

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The challenges of investing in AI

Our evolving thoughts on investing in AI applications

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Why we invested in Podcastle

Podcastle is giving superpowers to the next generation of content creators

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Remaking the App Store

The EU has finally made Apple redesign the App Store, 15 years after we started arguing about it, and no-one is happy with the result. In the next few years there'll be a lot of shouting and some giant fines, but in the end, nothing much will change.

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Why we invested in Parloa

Fixing customer service one phone call at a time. The power of LLMs to enable the largest virtual customer service team in the world

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AI and everything else

Benedict's keynote at Slush 2023

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Unbundling AI

ChatGPT and LLMs can do anything (or look like they can), so what can you do with them? How do you know? Do we move to chat bots as a magical general-purpose interface, or do we unbundle them back into single-purpose software? What are the products?

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Scaling personalised support: LLMs and human empowerment

LLMs and generative AI can offer huge benefits in healthcare, education, and social outcomes – if deployed safely

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The impact of LLMs on marketplaces

LLMs will enhance current marketplaces, allow for completely new exchange, and alter the economics of this business model.

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LLM agents: the next platform shift in B2B software

The cloud defined the past two decades of B2B software. Agent-based applications could define the next two.

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Generative AI and intellectual property

If you put all the world's knowledge into an AI model and use it to make something new, who owns that and who gets paid? This is a completely new problem that we've been arguing about for 500 years.

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When tech says "no"

The tech industry always has a reason why any new laws or regulations are bad - indeed, so does any industry. They always say that! The trouble is, sometimes it’s true, and some laws are (or would be) disasters. So which is it? Well, there are three ways that people say ‘NO!’

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LLM applications: an investing framework

We're witnessing an explosion of new generative AI applications. How do we navigate this emerging landscape?

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AI and the automation of work

ChatGPT and generative AI will change how we work, but how different is this to all the other waves of automation of the last 200 years? What does it mean for employment? Disruption? Coal consumption?

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Vision Pro

What has Apple built, what is it for, what does it mean for Meta, and why does it cost $3,500? Check back in 2025.

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Personalised learning: Edtech’s long-standing aspiration

LLMs and generative AI could change education for good

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Netflix, Shein and MrBeast

What does Netflix have in common with Shein, and why is MrBeast more interesting than Disney Plus?

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The New Gatekeepers

What do the macro shifts in tech have to do with the remake of commerce, and how Generative AI turns the hype cycle?

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Evaluating SaaS metrics at Series A

Which SaaS metrics are most predictive of long-term success? A benchmark of the key metrics we look at in diligence.

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ChatGPT and the Imagenet moment

The wave of enthusiasm around generative networks feels like another Imagenet moment - a step change in what ‘AI’ can do that could generalise far beyond the cool demos. What can it create, and where are the humans in the loop?

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Why We Invested in Vektor AI - a Platform Unlocking Mentoring for Tech Talent

Founded by ex Meta Anna Buldakova and Victor Buldakov, Vektor AI uses matching technology to connect tech talent with experienced mentors.

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Ways to think about a metaverse

Your boss wants a metaverse strategy, but what would that be, and what does metaverse even mean?

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Powering Personalisation: Why We Invested in Ninetailed

We believe that Ninetailed will make website personalisation far more accessible than ever – unlocking new revenue for digital businesses of all kinds.

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Meet Johannes Barth - Mosaic's New Head of Analytics

Johannes will play a crucial role in helping us streamline and automate our investment process.

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The creator economy: a power law

Where does power really lie in the creator economy value chain, and which are the most attractive market segments?

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Rocket ships and tractors

For some companies, revenue is a feature.

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Within and tech M&A

The US is fundamentally rethinking its approach to regulating competition, and M&A, and tech, and big tech buying startups. The FTC’s attempt to block Meta from buying Within is a test case for all of this. So, how many interesting problems can we count?

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Back to the trend line?

The Covid Rotation turns, and ecommerce penetration is back to the trend line. But which trend line, and which penetration?

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There’s no such thing as data

Data is the new oil, we are told. Every country needs a data strategy, and all of us should own our data, and be paid for it. But really, there is no such thing as data, it’s not yours, and it’s not worth anything.

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Now what? A Letter to Founders on How to Survive a Bear Market

Mosaic’s co-founder and partner Toby Coppel shares his view on how the market volatility impacts venture capital and gives advice to founders on how to survive a bear market.

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What do Europe’s leading founders have in common?

Are there some founders who are more likely to build a Unicorn? We analysed 197 founding CEOs of European unicorns, to uncover patterns in their backgrounds and previous experience.

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AI for code: the next frontier in software development?

As large language models are applied to code, we can give ‘superpowers’ to developers. Could this transform the way we build software in the coming decades?

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TV, merchant media and the unbundling of advertising

Amazon’s ad business is bigger than YouTube and more profitable than AWS. Shein is the biggest fast-fashion retailer in the US, with no stores. US pay TV subscribers have fallen by a third. Where do ad budgets go, where does rent go, and how many brands will there be?

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‘Google meets Which’: cost of living data platform Nous raises $9m

London-based fintech Nous has raised $9m (£6.6m) in a seed funding round to develop its platform for aggregating the cost of living data in areas such as energy, insurance and broadband.

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Privacy on the internet: what comes next?

Will there be a “killer app” that gives individuals sovereignty over their online identities – at global scale? And what is the role of startups in a domain contested by governments and Big Tech alike?

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Tech questions for 2022

Sometimes the centre of gravity in tech is very clear, but as we enter 2022 there are lots of areas where trillion dollar questions are wide open. These are the questions I wonder about today, from crypto to cars to fast fashion - there are others.

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Three Steps To The Future

Exploring macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘Three Steps to the Future’.

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Nexar is building a ‘digital twin’ of cities using crowdsourced dash cam data

Nexar, a company best-known for its line of smart dash cams, has raised $53 million in a Series D financing round led by Qumra Capital. The funds will be used, in part, to scale its “digital twin” service built off crowdsourced dash cam footage for automotive OEMs and cities.

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Notes on newsletters

Email newsletters unlocked a new way to pay for content, but is this a tool or a network? You can write all you like, but how do you get readers? And is the take rate 10% or 90%?

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B2B marketplaces: what comes next?

The future of B2B commerce is open and frictionless

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When big tech buys small tech

‘Big tech’ buys hundreds of startups, but what are they, what does that mean for competition, and how does this fit into the broader market? How many more Instagrams are there, and how many DAOs?

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Metabrand

Has Mark Zuckerberg rebranded Facebook, or rebranded VR? What is the metaverse? And can any company decide to build the future anymore?

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Blockchain says it posted $1.5 billion in revenue this year

The auspiciously named Blockchain.com recently celebrated its tenth anniversary, which may as well be a century in crypto years. The U.K.-based private company has another reason to celebrate too: Its revenue just surpassed $1.5 billion year to date, according to vice chairman Nicolas Cary and chief executive Peter Smith, who shared the figure exclusively with Fortune.

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Reimagining the future of buy-to-let. Why we invested in GetGround.

Real estate is the world’s largest asset class: UK buy-to-let alone is £1.2T. Yet it remains completely un-securitised and inefficiently managed. Individual investors often find themselves lacking a clear view of property yield, while having to manage an ever-changing landscape of regulations and tax laws.

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Privacy on the internet: who cares?

The world of technology cannot, and should not, stand apart from ethics and the norms of civil society. On the internet, one of the most central normative questions we have wrestled with is the relationship between software applications, derivative data stored and shared in the cloud, and privacy -- notably, consumer privacy.

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Metaverse! Metaverse? Metaverse!!

‘Metaverse’ is the buzzword of the moment, yet it doesn’t really exist as more than a label on a whiteboard, and many of the ideas it tries to combine might not happen, or not like that. This might be the new ‘information highway.’ But however it works, some kind of break-out of new devices, new experiences and new kinds of popular culture seems pretty easy to believe in.

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Stepping out of the firehose

What does a mailbox with 351 thousand unread emails say about Bauhaus, the Arts and Crafts movement, and the Metaverse?

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A decade of the Tim Cook machine

In all the enthusiasms, arguments and panics around tech, Apple is the $2tn elephant in the corner, mostly silent and serenely indifferent to the news cycle. It just ships - and it ships market-leading products, with metronomic precision, at massive scale, on a decade-long strategic roadmap. It also likes lecturing its peers. But is there another Jesusphone?

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Why We Invested in Lightyear

About a year ago, via our friend and co-investor Taavet Hinrikus, we learnt about a promising pair of ex-Wise (formerly TransferWise) executives who were under the radar, on a mission to democratise retail investment in Europe. At the time, in “stealth mode” the project was called Gandalf. As longtime consumer fintech geeks and Tolkien fans, we were doubly intrigued.

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Mainframes, ML and digital transformation

‘Digital transformation’ sounds like a parody of meaningless tech marketing, but actually captures some pretty interesting and important shifts in big company tech. It’s not as exciting as crypto or AR, and it takes a decade or two, but it’s just as big as smartphones.

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Ads, privacy and confusion

Privacy is coming to the internet and cookies are going away. This is long overdue - but we don’t know what happens next, we don’t have much consensus on what online privacy actually means, and most of what’s on the table conflicts fundamentally with competition.

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Do App Store Rules Matter?

We’ve been arguing about Apple’s app store rules for a decade now, but whatever your opinion of them, it should now be clear that something is going to change.

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Why we invested in Zerion

Evgeny, Vadim, and Alexey have blown us away at every turn, with a powerful vision of creating the one-stop shop for DeFi. With a sharp eye for product and growth, they are rapidly bringing that vision to life.

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Unleashing the potential of the extended workforce. Why we invested in Utmost.

We are living through a fundamental shift in the structure of work: the rise of the non-employee. This presents new challenges: how do you manage an increasingly heterogeneous workforce in a unified, holistic way?

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Integrative SaaS: A new OS for the workplace?

There has been a proliferation – and fragmentation – of new work software in the cloud. End users can now pick and choose products that work for them, pioneered by the likes of Slack and Dropbox. But maintaining a coherent workflow across large teams is a struggle. So what should the “connective tissue” between SaaS applications look like?

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Antitrust posturing

Late last year the US congress's antitrust committee held a series of hearings, and produced a 400 page report, on competition issues around big tech platforms. The report, co-authored by the new FTC nominee Lina Khan, essentially claimed that these companies are collectively the new Standard Oil, crushin

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The Potential of Real Time Trade Finance. Our investment in Hokodo

By now, most of us have used or been offered a buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) option when we shop online. BNPL not only makes checkout experiences faster, but also drives consumers to spend more money.

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Boxes, trucks and bikes

The traditional way to think about ecommerce penetration is to look at share of total retail sales, and then deduct things like car repair, gasoline and restaurants - to get to ‘addressable retail’.

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Apple, Fedex and the cookie apocalypse

We’re now a couple of weeks into Apple’s latest iOS privacy move. If you want to track users between apps and the web, or from an ad through the app store to an install, then you need to ask permission, and Apple has deliberately framed the question such that almost no-one will say yes.

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Can Apple change ads?

Once upon a time, Apple was the iPod company. iPods were a much bigger business than the Mac, and they also made Apple a dominant force in the music industry.

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Does Amazon know what it sells?

Of Amazon’s top 50 best-sellers in “Children's Vaccination & Immunisation”, close to 20 are by anti-vaccine polemicists, and 5 are novels about fictional pandemics. This poses two questions

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The challenge of cross-border arbitrage: How to scale exchange and commerce platforms across Europe

Exchange and commerce platforms – and the tooling that comes with them – are having a moment. Hundreds of new marketplaces are being launched each month, leveraging new technology to supercharge supply and demand across sectors and geographies.

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Resetting the App Store

Apple launched the App Store in 2008, and tightened up the payment rules in 2011, and we’ve been arguing about it ever since. In many ways the issues haven’t really changed - it’s just that the numbers got a lot bigger.

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A second ‘DeFi Summer’? The next phase of Decentralised Finance

Decentralised finance – or DeFi – is gathering pace. After the ‘DeFi Summer’ of 2020, we’ve seen further growth in adoption this year. But is DeFi really moving towards the mainstream – and if it is, what are the second-order effects?

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Step changes in ecommerce

The recent lockdowns led to a forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters. The UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger increase in e-commerce adoption.

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Is content moderation a dead end?

In the late 1990s, Microsoft was the evil empire, and a big part of ‘evil’ was that it was too closed - it made things too hard for developers. But then came the great malware explosion

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Crossing the pond: Decoding US vs UK startup funding, with Kindred’s Maria Palma

Startups face many challenges on their growth journey – but breaking international markets is one of the biggest. The US and UK investment ecosystems might speak the same language, but they’re worlds apart: investor attitudes, founder profiles, culture and working styles all differ significantly.

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Machine learning meets creative content

The merging of production tools and ML-driven creative tools will redefine creative processes. In the next 10 years we’ll be able to turbocharge templates to create whole new forms of rich media.

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Amazon's private labels

Amazon is a big and very aggressive company, that’s radically changing how retailing works, and that attracts a lot of scrutiny and a lot of criticism. Some of this is entirely justified. However, there’s one strand of criticism that fascinates me because it attacks Amazon for something that’s been part of retail for 150 years - the private label business.

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Picks and shovels for ecommerce

New tooling will emerge to power the next generation of online retail. The future is headless, social, and content-driven.

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How to pitch your early-stage start up to investors with Mosaic Partner, Toby Coppel

Sooner or later, every founder has to talk about what they’re building to external people. The most dreaded group of all may just be investors. We sat down with Toby Coppel to unpack how early-stage founders should go about the investor pitch.

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Crypto with Morgan Beller, #futureofmoney

#Cryptocurrencies are crossing the chasm. Meaningful adoption from companies like @PayPal, @ChristiesInc and @MorganStanley mean there’s now no going back.

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Outgrowing software

When software eats the world, the questions that matter stop being software questions.

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Do Amazon ads bring in more cash than AWS?

There’s an old and common narrative around Amazon that it doesn’t make money, it sells below cost, it’s subsidised by investors and in particular it’s subsidised by AWS. People tend to repeat these to each other as though they’re unquestionable true, but they’re either debatable or objectively false.

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Retail, rent and things that don't scale

I generally think about retail as sitting on a spectrum from logistics to experience. At the logistics end, you know exactly what you want and retail’s job is to provide the most efficient way to get it. At the experience end, you don’t know, and retail’s job is to help you, with ideas, suggestion, curation and service.

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Shopify

Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019.

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Paying for news

Newspaper revenue really started to collapse well over a decade ago, and we've been discussing what to do about it for almost as long.

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The year 2021 will bring DeFi into adolescence

After DeFi's breakout growth, we'll now see innovation in user experience, liquidity, scalability, and regulation.

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The Great Unbundling

COVID, China, regulation.. tech is becoming a regulated industry, but what does that actually mean? How will tech look like when entering its second 50 years?

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Why we invested in Indeez

Gig workers have been hard hit by COVID. Freelance designers, Uber drivers, chefs and independent consultants alike have little visibility about when pre-pandemic life will return and their careers can resume. They were not protected against such a life-altering event: the crisis has been an awakening to the importance of income protection insurance.

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Online speech and publishing

Facebook has close to 2bn users, posting over 100bn things each day. The global SMS system, at its peak, had 20-25bn messages a day.

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