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What kind of disruption?

Software ate the world. Uber and Airbnb didn’t sell software - they disrupted and redefined markets. But what kind of disruption are we talking about ?

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Apple innovation and execution

It matters that Apple’s new Siri will be late, and it matters more that Apple didn’t realise. Is it more than that?

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Are better models better?

Every week there’s a better AI model that gives better answers. But a lot of questions don’t have better answers, only ‘right’ answers, and these models can’t do that. So what does ‘better’ mean, how do we manage these things, and should we change what we expect from computers?

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The Deep Research problem

OpenAI’s Deep Research is built for me, and I can’t use it. It’s another amazing demo, until it breaks. But it breaks in really interesting ways.

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AI eats the world

Every year, I produce a big presentation exploring macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. For 2025, "AI eats the world"

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Competing in search

Will Apple build a search engine? Will ChatGPT change search? Does it matter?

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The AI summer

Hundreds of millions of people have tried ChatGPT, but most of them haven’t been back. Every big company has done a pilot, but far fewer are in deployment. Some of this is just a matter of time. But LLMs might also be a trap: they look like products and they look magic, but they aren’t. Maybe we have to go through the slow, boring hunt for product-market fit after all.

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Apple intelligence and AI maximalism

Apple has showed a bunch of cool ideas for generative AI, but much more, it is pointing to most of the big questions and proposing a different answer - that LLMs are commodity infrastructure, not platforms or products.

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Building AI products

How do we build mass-market products that change the world around a technology that gets things ‘wrong’? What does wrong mean, and how is that useful?

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Ways to think about AGI

How do we think about a fundamentally unknown and unknowable risk, when the experts agree only that they have no idea?

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